November 3, 2020

  • Election 2020 Live Update Coverage!

    The Election is finally upon us, and I am prepared to finally offer my predictions alongside my justifications for why.

     

    First, however, let me note something about this Xanga page. I created it in 2005, when I was 20 years old. I did so with the initial goal of running for president once I became eligible to run, which is this year. I was a Democrat and a deeply devoted Christian at the time, so I seriously thought I had a real chance of meeting my goal by this point in my life. That’s reason that I created “DemocratForChrist2020”. Interestingly, I am now no longer a Christian (I’m Agnostic), nor am I a Democrat (I’m an Independent). Yet, my ambitions remain strong even now. Either way, that is my attempt at marking this occasion with a person touch. Now, let’s get on with the predictions!

     

     

    Let’s start with predictions about Congress. I have seen enough polling patterns as well as shifts in momentum from reporting as well as mentions in social media (across numerous platforms) to predict that Democrats will likely end up with a House and Senate majority after tonight’s election. Specifically, I believe that the Democrats will likely walk away with between 244 and 248 seats in the House of Representatives. Likewise, they will likely walk away with a 53-47 Senate Majority (51 Democrats and 2 Independents caucusing with them). Why?

     

    The trend is highly favorable for Democrats to win in both Chambers, primarily due to the high unpopularity of President Trump as well as how Republicans in Congress have handled the pandemic response. They certainly won’t sweep them (unless there is a much larger wave election in store, which would suggest an Electoral College landslide for Biden of 400 electoral votes or more). Finally, this domination by Democrats in Congress will transfer to State Legislative and Statewide races as well, where Democrats will very likely win control in a handful of states.

     

    With respect to the presidency, I have been very cautious to make any predictions after what we saw four years ago. Like in 2016, Trump has managed to excite his base in the final weeks of the campaign. He has experienced a surge in the polls, wherein he has managed to close the gap with Biden in a number of areas. Even so, the polling averages – which have significantly improved since 2016, and the results of the primaries show that -, Trump’s deep unpopularity/recklessness, and historical trends are favoring Biden pretty heavily.

     

    He is also trouncing Trump in national polling averages compared to Hillary Clinton four years ago, and it doesn’t hurt that Biden is NOT Hillary; complete with all of her political baggage (both fair and unfair) as accumulated from three decades of being in the public limelight. Biden is largely remembered fondly by many Democrats and winnable swing voters as being Obama’s relatively uncontroversial and sometimes ostensibly lovable Vice President. This all works in Biden’s favor, regardless of what the Democratic Party did on his behalf during the primaries and irrespective of his own policy shortcomings throughout his career.

     

    This election is going to serve as a referendum on Trump, because Biden is exciting nobody outside of deeply loyal Democrats. Since 1900, only five sitting presidents have lost an election: Howard Taft in 1912, Herbert Hoover in 1932, Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Before that, very few sitting presidents lost their elections. As the Third President in American history to be impeached, presiding over a disastrous and economically damaging handling of a pandemic – which produced jobs losses superseding the Great Depression’s peak -, who has assaulted the Constitution at every chance he gets, and whose rhetoric is his worst enemy, Trump is likely to lose this election, with Biden winning around 320-350 Electoral Votes, at least (and there is a slight possibility of a final count exceeding 400 Electoral Votes). Bear in mind as the election unfolds, that these predictions were offered at 5:03pm, about 2 and half hours before the first major poll closings.

     

    Live Updates (per NBC calls) to come below (stay tuned):

     

    7:00pm: Indiana called for Trump. I expected that, actually. Trump up by 11. (Trump 11, Biden 0)

     

    7:18pm: Vermont called for Biden. Also expected.  Trump up by 8. (Trump 11, Biden 3)

     

    7:57pm: Kentucky called for Trump. As expected, but called late. Trump up by 16. (Trump 19, Biden 3)

     

    8:00pm: Washington D.C., Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey called for Biden, Oklahoma called for Trump. (Biden 44, Trump 26)

     

    8:12pm: Tennessee called for Trump, a bit delayed, but expected. (Biden 44, Trump 37)

     

    8:20pm: West Virginia called for Trump, Connecticut called for Biden, both a bit delayed. (Biden 51, Trump 42)

     

    8:50pm: Arkansas called for Trump, a bit delayed, but expected. (Biden 51, Trump 48)

     

    9:00pm: New York called for Biden, as expected. (Biden 80, Trump 48)

     

    9:09pm: South Dakota called for Trump, as expected, but delayed. (Biden 80, Trump 51)

     

    9:18pm: Colorado called for Biden. (Biden 89, Trump 51)

     

    9:20pm: North Dakota called for Trump, as expected, but delayed. (Biden 89, Trump 54)

     

    9:27pm: Alabama called for Trump, as expected, but delayed. (Biden 89, Trump 63)

     

    9:32pm: South Carolina called for Trump, as expected, but delayed. (Biden 89, Trump 72)

     

    10:15pm: New Mexico called for Biden. (Biden 94, Trump 72)

     

    10:24pm: Kansas and Louisiana called for Trump. (Biden 94, Trump 86 )

     

    10:26pm: New Hampshire called for Biden. (Biden 98, Trump 86)

     

    10:32pm: Utah called for Trump, as expected, but delayed. (Biden 98, Trump 92)

     

    10:39pm: Missouri called for Trump. (Biden 98, Trump 102)

     

    10:44pm: Illinois called for Biden. (Biden 118, Trump 102)

     

    10:50pm: Nebraska called for Trump. (Biden 118, Trump 107)

     

    10:57pm: Wyoming and Mississippi called for Trump, as expected, but delayed. (Biden 118, Trump 114)

     

    11:00pm: California, Washington, Oregon called for Biden. (Biden 192, Trump 114)

     

    11:58pm: Ohio called for Trump. (Biden 192, Trump 132)

     

    12:03am: Idaho called for Trump, expected, but delayed. (Biden 192, Trump 136)

     

    12:04am: Virginia called for Biden. (Biden 205, Trump 136)

     

    12:39am: Florida called for Trump (Biden 205, Trump 165)

     

    12:45am: I am no longer predicting a victory for Biden, nor am I predicting a Democratic Majority in the Senate.

     

    12:52am: Iowa called for Trump. (Biden 205, Trump 171)

     

    1:08am: Texas called for Trump. (Biden 205, Trump 209)

     

    1:10am: Montana called for Trump, as expected, but delayed. (Biden 205, Trump 212)

     

    1:12am: Rhode Island called for Biden, as expected, but delayed. (Biden 209, Trump 212)

     

    1:29pm: Nebraska District 2 called for Biden, a pick-up from Trump. Also, seemingly another call for Trump, perhaps Nebraska District 1. (Biden 210, Trump 213)

     

    1:35am: Minnesota called for Biden. (Biden 220, Trump 213)

     

    2:34am: President Trump prematurely declares victory, calls the election a "fraud", asserts that "they are trying to disenfranchise [Trump voters]", and that he will go to the Supreme Court to stop any votes from being further counted.

     

    3:45am: It has been two hours since the last state was called and I have reached my limit as to how long I can stay awake. I have to get my kids up in the morning for their schoolwork. If there are any calls while I sleep, I will include them and the updates Electoral Vote count in further updates. Good night and hopefully we get out of this in one piece.

     

    11:03am (11/4/2020): I woke up about half an hour ago and looked at the current results. The only race that was called in my sleep was Hawaii for Biden. (Biden 224, Trump 213). Also, the House currently stands at a projection of Democrats 227 and Republicans 208 (which could change as the counts continue). The Senate stands at Democrats 46 and Republicans 47.

     

    11:18am (11/4/2020): As of THIS MOMENT, Biden is leading in Arizona (slightly). Nevada (barely), Wisconsin (barely), Michigan (barely), and in Maine (by quite a bit). If these trends continue it will give Biden exactly the 46 Electoral College votes he needs to win the presidency.

     

    12:02pm (11/4/2020): Maine called for Biden, as expected, but delayed. (Biden 227, Trump 213)

     

    11:30pm (11/4/2020): I was at work when some VERY important developments in the race occurred. Trump gained an electoral vote, as he was awarded Maine's 2nd Congressional District, but the biggest twist was Wisconsin and Michigan being called for Biden, marking his second and third flips from the 2016 Trump column. (Biden 253, Trump 214)

     

    12:00am (11/5/2020): It is worth noting that different networks have different numbers. FOX News and the AP called Arizona for Biden, but NBC and CNN haven't. So, FOX News and the AP have Biden at 264 v. Trump's 214, but NBC and CNN have him at 253. To err on the side of caution, I will continue to stick with the projections of the news sources being more cautious.

     

    10:36pm (11/7/2020): Just before noon today Pennsylvania was called for Former Vice President, making him the 46th President of the United States. A couple hours later Nevada was called for him as well (Biden 279, Trump 214). This made Biden the first President-elect since 1988 to have been a former Vice President, the first president-elect since 1960 to win without winning Ohio, the second Catholic (after Kennedy) elected to the presidency, the first president-elect to have unseated a sitting president since 1992. and the first president-elect from the state of Delaware. Additionally, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris became the first woman to be elected to or otherwise serve in that office, the first African American to ever be elected to or otherwise serve in that office, and the first Asian American descendant ever elected to or otherwise serve in that office.

     

    11:35am (11/11/2020): Within the past hour, Alaska was called for Trump, as expected, but delayed. (Biden 279, Trump 217)

     

    7:13pm (11/13/2020): Over the course of today Arizona and Georgia have been called for Biden while North Carolina has been called for Trump. Additionally, Biden leads Trump by more than five million votes. (Biden 306, Trump 232) The Senate is presently at 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats with two runoff Senate Elections in Georgia to be held in January which will decide the balance of power in the Senate. The House of Representatives presently sits at a projection of 224 Democrats and 211 Republicans with 13 races yet to be decided.

     

    11:25pm (1/29/2021): I haven't updated this post in over two months because there are still a handful of seats in the House to be filled, this includes a vacancy left by the lack of a certified result in New York's 22nd District (the race is separated by a handful of votes), a Republican elected to a seat died before taking office, and one member of Congress resigned. Even without these seats filled, the Democrats have a 221 to 211 majority. On January 5th, the runoff elections in Georgia handed the Democrats the two seats they needed to clinch the majority with a 50-50 split and Vice President Harris breaking the tie. Democrats gained in down-ballot seats across the country, but Republicans strategically won enough seats which led to a flipping of two legislative chambers for a total 0f 61 to the 37 controlled by Democrats. Republicans gained unified government control in New Hampshire and Montana after winning the governors' races in those states. Only one Governor's seat flipped and it was when Republicans won in Montana, making the political balance for governors being 27 Republicans and 23 Democrats. In total, Democrats now control 3,312 seats to the 4,007 seats under Republican control; with 64 independent or third party officials. It was 3,150 Democrats and 4,102 Republicans before the election.

     

    Tonight’s (“Whenever We Know The Outcome”) Conclusion

     

    The time that I am finally updating this with a conclusion is Saturday, November 7th, 2020 at 10:47pm. It took 4 days AFTER the election to finally find out who our next president will be. This historically close election most certainly brought back memories of the 2000 Election Debacle when the Supreme Court handed the presidency to George W. Bush in December 2000. President Trump still has not conceded and reportedly refuses to do so, but none of that will matter on Inauguration Day, because Joseph R. Biden will be sworn in at noon that day to become our next president.

     

    Biden is far from perfect. I will never forget what the Democratic Party and Media Establishment did to stop the revolution inspired and led by Senator Bernie Sanders. I am prepared to set my sights and criticisms on the incoming administration. However, I will do so with my eyes forever fixed on the behavior of Trump's fascist political party. I will never forget that they were willing to destroy the Republic all to preserve their claim to power.

     

    As more updates pertinent to this election emerge up through Inauguration Day I will share my thoughts about such above.

     

    "This is a time to heal in America." - Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, President-Elect, during his victory speech 11/7/2020

     

    #NotMeUs #OurRevolution #TheResistance #ImpeachTrump #ClimateCrisis

     

    Purchase my manifesto, “The Pillars of Unitism”.

     

     

    Until next time…

     

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