November 6, 2018

  • Election Day 2018: My Take and Coverage

    The day is finally here! The last election I covered through this blog was the 2012 Presidential Election. Before that, I had covered 2008 here,  but had live-updated statuses on Facebook during the 2o16 election. This will be the first Mid-Term that I analyze and cover via this blog because it truly is the most important election in the history of our country.

     

    I will be highlighting races from Congress to State and Local Level elections. EVERY ELECTION is important. It is vital that the Democrats (at the VERY LEAST) take control of the House of Representatives. Should they do so it will allow them to force Trump and Congressional Republicans to halt their radical agenda against democracy and the working class. However, if the Democrats fail to capture the House, Trump and his Congressional Republicans will proclaim that such represents a green light for them to push forward on that agenda.

     

    I will also be looking closely at the campaign for Senate control. Pundits expect Republicans to retain control there, but Democratic victory is crucial here as well to stop Trump and the Republicans from radically changing the balance of our Courts to fit the oligarchic agenda of the super wealthy. Winning the House means NOTHING in the fight for the Courts. It is all about the Senate here.

     

    Control of the State Governorships and Legislatures is key for the battle for our democracy and the working class as well. Most of the attacks on worker's rights and progressivism have been spearheaded at the State level (one of the reasons I don't trust Kasich, no matter how nice he looks on TV compared to Trump). The states have always been used as a factory for ideas tested before advancing them on the national level (think "Obamacare"/"Romneycare"). Moreover, since many states still permit the exploitation for political gain of their constitutional responsibility to redraw legislative district lines after the census, the state elections (including the legislature, Governor, and Secretary of State; the last of which is the chief elections officer of a state) are crucial to preserving and protecting our democracy.

     

    On local races, I will largely be looking at the county-level races here in my home county, but may remark on elections throughout the country. Too many people take for granted the importance of EVERY campaign up and down the ballot. I will do what I can to help point out why we have to care about every office up for grabs.

     

    After the coverage, I will be summarizing my thoughts in a traditional "Tonight's Conclusion" segment. Stay tuned!

     

    Coverage (Time of Update in parentheses and in EST):

    (6:45 PM) I will be live updating the progress as much as possible. There will be a brief period, though, where I will be unable to do so. I have to give my brother and his son a ride home and that will take about half an hour. I will catch up and summarize on whatever news breaks during that period.

     

    (7:01 PM) Bernie wins re-election! So does Tim Kaine. Obviously good news.

     

    (7:13 PM) Ohio and a few other states will see their polls close in 17 minutes. I will not be able to update at that point because I will be taking my brother and his son home.  If there is breaking news while I am out I will catch up once I get home.

     

    (8:07 PM) Just got back. A number of Democrats have won re-election in the Senate, including Senator Brown here in Ohio. Democrats have flipped 2 seats so far in the U.S. House. I will list the states won at the end of this post as a recap. All new victories I will cover here.

     

    (8:41 PM) Issue 1 in Ohio - reducing penalties for drug offenders and seeking to shift financing to treatment - has apparently gone down in flames. Probably wasn't the best decision to propose this as a State Constitutional Amendment.

     

    (9 PM) Indiana just ousted their Democratic Senator, Donnelley, for Mike Braun. It looks as though the hopes of a wave are dissipating while a number of contested Congressional seats are being called for Republicans. The loss of Indiana's Senate seat makes control of the Senate harder. Manchin wins reelection.

     

    (9:06 PM) Blackburn wins in Tennessee U.S. Senate race. Democrats are seeing their hopes of controlling the Senate slip away. There were a bunch more calls of predictable races, but I will list them at the bottom by the end of the night.

     

    (9:30 PM) I'm sure that my local paper has already called it, but the race for Licking County Commissioner here in Ohio seems to have gone to the incumbent, Rick Black. Shame, too, as Adam Rhodes was a damn good candidate.

     

    (9:33 PM) Note: I have decided to finish the tally below after all the results for the night are in. I can't possibly keep track of hundreds of races at once. I will reserve my updates for the biggest news; particularly news with respect to control over Congress, the Governorships, and Legislatures. Additionally, I am going to sadly predict that although the races are "too close to call" it looks as though Andrew Gillum - an amazing progressive candidate for Governor in Florida - will lose to the Trump-worshipping Ron DeSantis and that Senator Bill Nelson will lose to the Republican Governor Rick Scott.

     

    (9:37 PM) Congratulations to Colorado for electing the nation's first ever openly gay governor!

     

    (9:47 PM) Back to the races here in Ohio. All Democratic statewide candidates not named Sherrod Brown are having trouble as they are all behind. Meanwhile, control of the General Assembly is likely to remain in Republican hands with my friends Jeremy Blake and Tyler Shipley, as well as Melinda Miller all trailing their respective incumbent Republican incumbents.

     

    (9:49 PM) Silver lining in Ohio races is that it looks like all of the Democratic judicial nominees (at least those of which I was aware where I live) are winning.

     

    (9:59 PM) The vote-suppressing puppet of Trump from the fake commission on "Voter Fraud" and Secretary of State for Kansas, Kris Kobach has just went down in flames!!

     

    (10:08 PM) I will return shortly. Have a quick emergency errand to run. It looks like Democrats will come close to a majority of Governors, but will fall just short there and in the Senate. Also, the probability of a Democratic House has exponentially increased. I'll be back as soon as possible so that I may continue my coverage.

     

    (10:12 PM) Real quick, breaking news holds that Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp loses her seat in North Dakota thanks in part to voter suppression efforts by the Republican controlled state government whose actions kept many Native Americans from getting to the polls, which hurt Heitkamp more that the Republican. However, it doesn't help matters that Heitkamp has been more conservative than necessary in many respects except with one important vote (on Kavanaugh). Her vote on Kavanaugh may have helped cost her the race. Finally, Ted Cruz pulls off a squeaker victory over his flamboyant Democratic Challenger, Beto O'Rourke.

     

    (10:32 PM) With the aforementioned victory of Cruz, Republicans will retain the Senate, but as I returned I have just learned that Democrats have clinched the Senate and are inching closer to ousting some prominent Republicans from certain governor's mansions.

     

    (10:35 PM) Democrats have picked up a number of Governors' seats. I am curious as to what the makeup of state legislative seats will look like.

     

    (10:50 PM) In a call which was apparently made while I was out, Ohio has elected Mike DeWine to succeed Kasich and I am assuming that all of the other statewide Democrats were declared as the losers as well. Very tragic, but given the fact that Cordray lost to DeWine for Attorney General 4 years ago, this was predicted by a number of us back in the spring. Cordray would have been a decent governor, but this was a lost opportunity for sure.

     

    (11 PM) Although his race is still "too close to call", Gillum has conceded his race for Governor. Showing his character as a stand up guy. I am predicting that Democrats will lose their Senate seats in Florida (Nelson) and Missouri (McCaskill), which will at least result in a net-loss of one seat for the Democrats in the Senate.

     

    (11:48 PM) U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill has officially lost in Missouri. Nelson is still holding on to Rick Scott's heels. Democrats must win all remaining uncalled Senate races to avoid a net loss of seats in the Senate.

     

    (12:17 AM, November 7th) Beto was just giving a rousing concession speech. Was broadcast on national television telling his supporters "I'm so fucking proud of you!" Had to laugh out loud at that. Any Trump supporters who attack him for that are hypocrites...just saying. Anyways, the guy looked like an Obama-esque Presidential Candidate. He may even be way better than President Obama depending on his stance on the issues affecting the working class. Keep an eye on him for sure.

     

    (12:47 AM) Maine's Governorship has just flipped to the Democrats, and we are still waiting to see who wins the remaining races. I will stay up until 1:30 or 2 AM covering and analyzing this election. If no new developments come before then I will call it a night since I have to take my kids to school in the morning before heading to work. Any new developments after I awake will be reviewed once I get a chance tomorrow.

     

    (7:37 PM, November 12th) It has almost been a week since the election and we have yet to find out all the consequences of this election. It looks like the best Republicans will do is a net gain of two seats in the U.S. Senate, and even that could go down if Democrats pull off a miracle and flip the Mississippi Senate Seat which is going to a special election runoff later this month. If the recount in Florida manages to show that Nelson wins reelection, then flipping the Mississippi seat would result in a ZERO net gain for either party in the Senate. One can only hope. I will be back one more time when we have all the results so that I may give my complete election analysis.

     

    Tally (Update: This is to be completed by the end of the vote counts):

    SENATE

    Ohio - Brown Reelected!

    Virginia - Kaine Reelected!

    Maryland - Cardin Reelected!

    Delaware - Carper Reelected!

    Connecticut - Murphy Reelected!

    Rhode Island - Whitehouse Reelected!

    Massachusetts - Warren Reelected!

    Vermont - Bernie Reelected!

    New Jersey - Menendez Reelected!

    Indiana - Braun Elected (Gain for Republicans)

     

    HOUSE (Not going to list names, just the breakdown of which party has the most seats)

    Will provide number at end of election.

    (EDIT: 5/31/2019) As of this writing, one seat remains undecided in North Carolina following a scandal which involved a Republican Congressman paying a group to steal absentee ballots. A protracted debate culminated in a hearing wherein a new election was demanded and the Incumbent Republican bowed out of the race. The special election is now pending. Final analysis - complete with the much-delayed "Tonight's Conclusion" - to come following that race's decision.

     

    STATE LEGISLATURES (Special Emphasis on Ohio)

    Will provide numbers at end of election.

    (EDIT: 5/31/2019)

    Per Ballotpedia, Democrats had a net-gain of 309 seats across 86 state legistlative bodies. There are 99 in total and 87 of them held elections, but one was not a "regularly scheduled partisan election". In the process of flipping those seats, Democrats seized control of six chambers and Republicans gained none. Although, the Republicans lost their supermajority in North Carolina even as they managed to negotiate a shared-control agreement with Democrats in Alaska; where the Democrats had previously controlled it.

     

    GOVERNORS

    Pennsylvania - Wolf Reelected!

    Massachusetts - Baker Reelected

    Rhode Island - Raimondo Reelected!

    Illinois - Pritzker Elected!

    Arkansas - Hutchinson Reelected

    Tennessee - Lee Reelected

     

    OHIO LOCAL ELECTIONS

    Will provide figures at end of election.

    (EDIT: 5/31/2019)

    Per Ballotpedia, The Ohio Republicans gained a seat in their State Senate majority when they picked up a vacant seat to increase their majority to 24-9. In the State House, Democrats picked up 6 seats, with one victory being a vacated seat; numbers are now at 61-38 with the Republicans holding the advantage.

     

    Tonight's Conclusion

     

    Coming soon.

     

    TAKE CARE